Dennis Todey, South Dakota State Climatologist

Pat Guinan, Missouri State Climatologist

This time of year questions about frost/freeze potential are common as producers look for a little more time for crops to mature, or gardeners and horticultural interests hope for some extra days to collect a few more tomatoes. Projecting specific frost dates are difficult beyond using models out to 1-2 weeks. Thus, climatologies and current crop progress become very important.

This year, current crop progress varies greatly across the Plains and Midwest because of spring and early summer planting conditions. Early spring in the northern plains/upper Midwest was quite dry allowing easy planting progress and warm soils before rains started occurring in May. This situation was in large contrast to the southern and eastern parts of the Corn Belt. Continue reading →

As we reach the latter part of April the whole Corn Belt is well into planting season, though corn planting progress is a little slow so far. Several contrasting issues are impacting planting across the Corn Belt and into the Northern and Central Plains.

Planting in much of the eastern Corn Belt has been slowed a little by early season wetness particularly in the southeastern parts (Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Ohio) where heavier than average precipitation over the last 30-60 days has kept conditions wetter, keeping planters out of the fields. Areas in the Ohio River Valley have seen 150-200% of average precipitation or more in the last 30 days. In contrast much of the plains area (Dakotas to Kansas) has seen much drier conditions leading to increase in coverage on the US Drought Monitor.

The wet conditions have slowed corn planting compared to average across the southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt. Continue reading →

The January long range outlooks were released two weeks ago.  The main themes are continued similar overall pattern is expected into February and possibly into spring.  Colder conditions are more likely in the northern plains with no strong indications on precipitation except for some increased chances in the Ohio Valley.

The more interesting feature in the outlooks is not mentioned in the outlooks directly.  Recent forecasts for El Nino have been showing Continue reading →

What was possibly going to be a late harvest season with the late planting and cooler mid-summer temperatures has moved ahead quicker than expected.  Late season warmth and dryness pushed crops progress along and also pushed many to premature maturity because of a lack of moisture accompanying the heat in the late summer.  Thus, crops that were expected to stay green well into the fall have not.  A warm and relatively dry September also aided that situation.  Continue reading →

Much of the Cornbelt experienced conditions warmer and drier than average in recent weeks. Temperatures for the first 25 days of September have been above average in the western two-thirds of the region with the departures becoming stronger moving from east to west. Meanwhile, much of Ohio and Indiana as well as parts of Illinois and Wisconsin have been close to average. After planting delays this spring and the cooler than average conditions that prevailed through mid-August, this late season warmth gave corn an opportunity to at least partially catch up in its development. In addition, it has served as an aid in drydown in those fields that have already reached maturity.

Based on the September 24, 2013, US Drought Monitor, the US Department of Agriculture estimates that 54 percent of the US corn production is in some stage of drought. At this late stage of the growing season, additional precipitation will have little impacts on yields. In fact, any significant precipitation at this point is more likely to be a hindrance as the harvest continues.

Click to enlarge. Map courtesy of the US Department of Agriculture

Missouri has experienced some large precipitation disparities this summer, ranging from moderate drought to historic flooding. The disparities have been especially notable in August. Some south central counties have received 15-20 inches of rain this month, whereas 120 miles to the north…not a drop.

Several counties across northern Missouri have received less than 2-inches of rain since July 1, which is more than 6-inches below normal. Crop stress has emerged in the driest areas, with some firing and leaf curling reported, more notably in upland areas, or in soils with higher clay or sand content. Cool July and August temperatures, in combination with below normal ET rates, have mitigated full drought stress potential but corn yields are declining due to the current high water demand of late planted corn, and during a critical growth stage. Soybean growth has also slowed down in these drier areas.

Unlike last year, below normal evaporative rates this spring and summer has had less impact on surface water supplies, and they remain mostly adequate despite the extended dry spell across northern Missouri.

For podcast, please visit:

<http://www.radiodeege.com/Podcasts/2013/08/19/july-and-august-rainfall-in-missouri-the-tale-of-the-haves-and-the-have-nots/>

For information on historic flood event across southern Missouri, please visit:

<http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/scripts/localdata.php?loc=appevents&data=2013/2013aug10/summary.htm&format=noprint|nomenu&type=html>