The January long range outlooks were released two weeks ago. The main themes are continued similar overall pattern is expected into February and possibly into spring. Colder conditions are more likely in the northern plains with no strong indications on precipitation except for some increased chances in the Ohio Valley.
The more interesting feature in the outlooks is not mentioned in the outlooks directly. Recent forecasts for El Nino have been showing increased chances of El Nino occurring as we progress through the year. El Nino’s tend to peak in strength during the northern hemisphere winter. But the likelihood of being in an El Nino increases in the late spring and into summer. By late spring the chances of being in an El Nino or Neutral conditions (our current status) are about even. There is very low chance of La Nina onset through the year.
Two questions arise then
Will the El Nino on set occur enough to impact our growing season?
How strong will the El Nino be?
The answer to number one is that the El Nino likely will not impact the spring, but has a chance to impact summer. The 2nd answer is still an unknown as the El Nino is still pending.
What is the operative impact on this? At this point keep watching for developments. The short answer of El Nino impact in the summer across the corn belt is generally good growing conditions. Temperatures tend not to be too extreme during El Nino summers (maybe a little cool in northern areas). Precipitation tends to not be limiting. Growing seasons as a whole may not be outstanding. But they are usually not poor. Thus, grain supplies from the growing season have increasing chances of getting back to at least trend line if not above.
We’ll update these outlooks as the spring progresses.
